Ulta Beauty, Inc. ULTA

Revenue Intelligence Report • 66 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-08-01

Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $3.0B for the period ending 2026-08-01. The model projects $15.8B across the next four quarters (+22.3% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 9.8%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-08-01. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$15.8B
+22.3% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.93x
Training Fit
3.5% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2027): The model predicted $3.33B vs the actual $3.04B — an error of 9.8%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Ulta Beauty, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

ULTA Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-08-01		 $3.33B $3.04B $3.00B–$3.70B +19.5% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2026-11-01		 $3.46B $2.98B–$4.02B +21.2%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-02-01		 $4.81B $4.01B–$5.77B +23.3%
Q1 FY2028
Period end 2027-05-01		 $3.57B $2.89B–$4.41B +12.9%
Q2 FY2028
Period end 2027-08-01		 $4.00B $3.16B–$5.06B +31.7%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Feb–Apr) 1.0165 +1.6% In line with trend 16
FQ2 (May–Jul) 0.9899 -1.0% In line with trend 15
FQ3 (Aug–Oct) 1.0071 +0.7% In line with trend 15
FQ4 (Nov–Jan) 1.0059 +0.6% In line with trend 15

Spending and Revenue

ULTA Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 66 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.9866x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 66 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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