Ross Stores, Inc. ROST

Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-08-01

Ross Stores, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $6.3B for the period ending 2026-08-01. The model projects $28.2B across the next four quarters (+15.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 5.4%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-08-01. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$28.2B
+15.1% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$6.25 per $1
Training Fit
5.4% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2027): The model predicted $6.61B vs the actual $6.26B — an error of 5.4%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Ross Stores, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

ROST Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-08-01		 $6.61B $6.26B $6.11B–$7.10B +19.5% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2026-11-01		 $6.35B $5.66B–$7.05B +13.4%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-02-01		 $7.31B $6.45B–$8.16B +10.1%
Q1 FY2028
Period end 2027-05-01		 $6.96B $5.97B–$7.95B +15.8%
Q2 FY2028
Period end 2027-08-01		 $7.60B $6.50B–$8.70B +21.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Ross Stores, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Mar–May) 1.0051 +0.5% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Jun–Aug) 0.9557 -4.4% -4.4% below trend 16
FQ3 (Sep–Nov) 1.0082 +0.8% In line with trend 16
FQ4 (Dec–Feb) 1.064 +6.4% +6.4% above trend 16

Spending and Revenue

ROST Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 70 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.0662x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 70 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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