Mgm Resorts International MGM

Revenue Intelligence Report • 42 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Mgm Resorts International's latest quarterly revenue is $4.5B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $17.4B across the next four quarters (-2.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 4.3%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$17.4B
-2.1% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$2.32 per $1
Training Fit
20.7% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $4.26B vs the actual $4.45B — an error of 4.3%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Mgm Resorts International does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

MGM Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $4.26B $4.45B $3.59B–$4.93B -3.3% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $4.33B $3.38B–$5.28B +1.9%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $4.34B $3.17B–$5.51B -5.7%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $4.40B $3.05B–$5.74B -1.3%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $4.33B $2.82B–$5.83B -2.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Mgm Resorts International's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.0074 +0.7% In line with trend 10
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9681 -3.2% -3.2% below trend 9
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0321 +3.2% +3.2% above trend 9
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9932 -0.7% In line with trend 9

Spending and Revenue

MGM Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 42 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.3801x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 42 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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