Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. NCLH

Revenue Intelligence Report • 58 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.'s latest quarterly revenue is $2.6B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $7.4B across the next four quarters (-27.3% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 24.2%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$7.39B
-27.3% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.87x
Training Fit
44.7% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $2.00B vs the actual $2.64B — an error of 24.2%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($2.6B) came in 24% above the spending-based forecast ($2.0B). This suggests that Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.'s recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

NCLH Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $2.00B $2.64B $736.8M–$5.44B -20.5% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $1.80B $436.6M–$7.38B -38.9%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $1.72B $304.6M–$9.72B -23.3%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $2.12B $286.7M–$15.63B -9.2%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $1.75B $187.6M–$16.40B -33.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9265 -7.4% -7.4% below trend 14
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.2907 +29.1% +29.1% above trend 13
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.2042 +20.4% +20.4% above trend 13
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.001 +0.1% In line with trend 13

Spending and Revenue

NCLH Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 58 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 11.8221x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 58 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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