Lowes Companies Inc LOW

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-07-31

Lowes Companies Inc's latest quarterly revenue is $26.0B for the period ending 2026-07-31. The model projects $94.9B across the next four quarters (+5.0% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 6.1%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-07-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$94.9B
+5.0% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.24x
Training Fit
3.9% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2027): The model predicted $24.37B vs the actual $25.96B — an error of 6.1%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Lowes Companies Inc does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

LOW Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-07-31		 $24.37B $25.96B $21.95B–$27.07B +1.7% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2026-10-31		 $22.08B $19.04B–$25.61B +6.1%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-01-31		 $22.12B $18.45B–$26.53B +7.5%
Q1 FY2028
Period end 2027-04-30		 $24.83B $20.13B–$30.62B +7.6%
Q2 FY2028
Period end 2027-07-31		 $25.90B $20.48B–$32.74B -0.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Lowes Companies Inc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Feb–Apr) 0.9911 -0.9% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (May–Jul) 1.0277 +2.8% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Aug–Oct) 0.9771 -2.3% In line with trend 17
FQ4 (Nov–Jan) 1.0118 +1.2% In line with trend 17

Spending and Revenue

LOW Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.0265x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 73 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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