Carnival Corporation CCL

Revenue Intelligence Report • 45 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-08-31

Carnival Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $8.4B for the period ending 2026-08-31. The model projects $27.5B across the next four quarters (-0.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 8.6%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-08-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$27.5B
-0.2% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
3.73x
Training Fit
24.4% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q3 FY2026): The model predicted $7.71B vs the actual $8.44B — an error of 8.6%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Carnival Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

CCL Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-08-31		 $7.71B $8.44B $4.39B–$13.56B -5.4% ✓ In range
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-11-30		 $8.03B $3.61B–$17.84B +26.8%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-02-28		 $6.82B $2.57B–$18.14B +10.7%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-05-31		 $6.02B $1.95B–$18.61B -9.7%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-08-31		 $6.66B $1.88B–$23.52B -21.1%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Carnival Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Dec–Feb) 0.9723 -2.8% In line with trend 10
FQ2 (Mar–May) 1.1718 +17.2% +17.2% above trend 10
FQ3 (Jun–Aug) 1.1654 +16.5% +16.5% above trend 10
FQ4 (Sep–Nov) 0.8937 -10.6% -10.6% below trend 10

Spending and Revenue

CCL Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 45 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 6.9199x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 45 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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