Carvana Co. CVNA

Revenue Intelligence Report • 41 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Carvana Co.'s latest quarterly revenue is $7.4B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $34.7B across the next four quarters (+38.7% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 4.7%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$34.7B
+38.7% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-0.52x
Training Fit
7.6% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $7.03B vs the actual $7.38B — an error of 4.7%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.
Note: Carvana Co. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

CVNA Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $7.03B $7.38B $5.81B–$8.51B +45.3% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $7.65B $5.84B–$10.02B +35.5%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $8.17B $5.87B–$11.38B +45.9%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $9.23B $6.30B–$13.53B +43.5%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $9.69B $6.32B–$14.86B +31.4%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Carvana Co.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.0398 +4.0% +4.0% above trend 10
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0569 +5.7% +5.7% above trend 9
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9803 -2.0% In line with trend 9
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.945 -5.5% -5.5% below trend 9

Spending and Revenue

CVNA Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 41 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.8937x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 41 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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