Booking Holdings Inc. BKNG

Revenue Intelligence Report • 30 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Booking Holdings Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $7.4B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $30.6B across the next four quarters (+8.4% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 0.5%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$30.6B
+8.4% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.21x
Training Fit
6.5% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $7.39B vs the actual $7.35B — an error of 0.5%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Booking Holdings Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

BKNG Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $7.39B $7.35B $6.33B–$8.62B +8.7% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $9.11B $7.32B–$11.33B +1.1%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $6.84B $5.23B–$8.93B +7.7%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $6.29B $4.62B–$8.57B +13.8%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $8.37B $5.93B–$11.82B +13.9%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Booking Holdings Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.974 -2.6% In line with trend 7
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9746 -2.5% In line with trend 6
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0072 +0.7% In line with trend 6
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0584 +5.8% +5.8% above trend 6

Spending and Revenue

BKNG Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 30 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.3816x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 30 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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