Tapestry, Inc. TPR

Revenue Intelligence Report • 24 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-27

Tapestry, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $1.9B for the period ending 2026-06-27. The model projects $8.6B across the next four quarters (+8.0% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 6.1%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-27. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$8.65B
+8.0% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.97x
Training Fit
3.2% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q4 FY2026): The model predicted $1.99B vs the actual $1.88B — an error of 6.1%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Tapestry, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

TPR Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-27		 $1.99B $1.88B $1.85B–$2.14B +15.6% ✓ In range
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2026-09-27		 $1.87B $1.69B–$2.08B +9.8%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-12-27		 $2.60B $2.29B–$2.95B +3.8%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-27		 $2.02B $1.74B–$2.34B +4.9%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-27		 $2.16B $1.83B–$2.55B +15.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Tapestry, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jul–Sep) 0.9973 -0.3% In line with trend 5
FQ2 (Oct–Dec) 1.0138 +1.4% In line with trend 5
FQ3 (Jan–Mar) 1.0114 +1.1% In line with trend 5
FQ4 (Apr–Jun) 1.0073 +0.7% In line with trend 5

Spending and Revenue

TPR Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 24 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.9513x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 24 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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