Airbnb, Inc. ABNB

Revenue Intelligence Report • 26 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Airbnb, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $3.6B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $14.1B across the next four quarters (+7.0% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 4.8%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$14.1B
+7.0% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$5.59 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$3.50 per $1
Training Fit
2.3% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $3.43B vs the actual $3.61B — an error of 4.8%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

ABNB Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $3.43B $3.61B $3.28B–$3.58B +10.9% ✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $4.45B $4.24B–$4.66B +8.7%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $2.95B $2.69B–$3.21B +6.3%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $2.88B $2.57B–$3.18B +7.4%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $3.80B $3.46B–$4.14B +5.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Airbnb, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9848 -1.5% In line with trend 6
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9931 -0.7% In line with trend 5
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9968 -0.3% In line with trend 5
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.996 -0.4% In line with trend 5

Spending and Revenue

ABNB Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 26 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -1.4965x • R&D elasticity: 0.4323x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 26 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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