Ford Motor Co F

Revenue Intelligence Report • 72 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-03-31

Ford Motor Co's latest quarterly revenue is $43.3B for the period ending 2026-03-31. The model projects $209B across the next four quarters (+10.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 14.0%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-03-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$209.1B
+10.2% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$0.02 per $1
Training Fit
6.9% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2026): The model predicted $49.30B vs the actual $43.25B — an error of 14.0%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Ford Motor Co does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

F Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q1 FY2026
Period end 2026-03-31		 $49.30B $43.25B $38.25B–$63.54B +21.3% ✓ In range
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $51.19B $39.23B–$66.78B +2.0%
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $51.96B $39.22B–$68.83B +2.8%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $53.63B $39.59B–$72.65B +16.9%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $52.37B $38.24B–$71.74B +21.1%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Ford Motor Co's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9946 -0.5% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0417 +4.2% +4.2% above trend 18
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9965 -0.4% In line with trend 18
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0351 +3.5% +3.5% above trend 18

Spending and Revenue

F Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 72 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.2376x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is 14.0%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 72 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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