D.r. Horton, Inc. DHI

Revenue Intelligence Report • 39 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

D.r. Horton, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $9.2B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $30.4B across the next four quarters (-8.9% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 9.5%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$30.4B
-8.9% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$9.98 per $1
Training Fit
3.1% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q3 FY2026): The model predicted $8.35B vs the actual $9.23B — an error of 9.5%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: D.r. Horton, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

DHI Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $8.35B $9.23B $7.45B–$9.35B -9.5% ✓ In range
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $8.82B $7.72B–$10.09B -8.8%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2026-12-31		 $6.47B $5.62B–$7.45B -6.1%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $7.11B $6.07B–$8.33B -5.9%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $7.99B $6.64B–$9.60B -13.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture D.r. Horton, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Oct–Dec) 0.9725 -2.8% In line with trend 10
FQ2 (Jan–Mar) 1.001 +0.1% In line with trend 10
FQ3 (Apr–Jun) 1.0286 +2.9% In line with trend 9
FQ4 (Jul–Sep) 0.9762 -2.4% In line with trend 9

Spending and Revenue

DHI Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 39 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 2.5236x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -9.5%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 39 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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