Nike, Inc. NKE

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-08-31

Nike, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $11.2B for the period ending 2026-08-31. The model projects $45.7B across the next four quarters (-0.5% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 3.0%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-08-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$45.7B
-0.5% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.94x
Training Fit
4.2% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2027): The model predicted $11.55B vs the actual $11.21B — an error of 3.0%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Nike, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

NKE Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2026-08-31		 $11.55B $11.21B $9.87B–$13.52B -1.4% ✓ In range
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-11-30		 $11.54B $9.83B–$13.54B -7.1%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-02-28		 $11.33B $9.61B–$13.36B +0.5%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-05-31		 $11.51B $9.74B–$13.60B +4.9%
Q1 FY2028
Period end 2027-08-31		 $11.31B $9.52B–$13.43B +0.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Nike, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jun–Aug) 1.033 +3.3% +3.3% above trend 18
FQ2 (Sep–Nov) 0.9867 -1.3% In line with trend 18
FQ3 (Dec–Feb) 0.9977 -0.2% In line with trend 18
FQ4 (Mar–May) 0.9892 -1.1% In line with trend 18

Spending and Revenue

NKE Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.8034x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is 3.0%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 73 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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