Darden Restaurants, Inc. DRI

Revenue Intelligence Report • 49 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-08-30

Darden Restaurants, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $3.2B for the period ending 2026-08-30. The model projects $13.7B across the next four quarters (+2.5% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 9.5%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-08-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$13.7B
+2.5% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-0.79x
Training Fit
6.8% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2027): The model predicted $3.50B vs the actual $3.20B — an error of 9.5%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.
Note: Darden Restaurants, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

DRI Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2026-08-30		 $3.50B $3.20B $2.87B–$4.27B +15.1% ✓ In range
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-11-30		 $3.30B $2.49B–$4.36B +6.2%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-02-28		 $3.39B $2.40B–$4.77B +1.2%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-05-30		 $3.56B $2.39B–$5.29B -4.3%
Q1 FY2028
Period end 2027-08-30		 $3.46B $2.22B–$5.39B +8.1%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Darden Restaurants, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jun–Aug) 0.9733 -2.7% In line with trend 11
FQ2 (Sep–Nov) 0.9779 -2.2% In line with trend 11
FQ3 (Dec–Feb) 1.0681 +6.8% +6.8% above trend 11
FQ4 (Mar–May) 1.0012 +0.1% In line with trend 12

Spending and Revenue

DRI Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 49 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.0816x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 49 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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