What is BBY's forecasted revenue?

Best Buy Co., Inc. is forecasted to generate $42.0B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing -0.5% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the BBY revenue forecast model?

The model has 2.8% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $9.6B versus the actual $9.8B.

Best Buy Co., Inc. BBY

Revenue Intelligence Report • 54 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-08-01

Best Buy Co., Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $9.8B for the period ending 2026-08-01. The model projects $42.0B across the next four quarters (-0.5% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 1.9%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-08-01. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$42.0B

-0.5% YoY

SG&A Elasticity

1.41x

Training Fit

2.8% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2027): The model predicted $9.59B vs the actual $9.78B — an error of 1.9%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: Best Buy Co., Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2026-08-01	$9.59B	$9.78B	$8.89B–$10.35B	+1.6%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2027 Period end 2026-11-01	$9.61B		$8.63B–$10.71B	-0.6%
Q4 FY2027 Period end 2027-02-01	$13.84B		$12.13B–$15.80B	+0.2%
Q1 FY2028 Period end 2027-05-01	$8.87B		$7.62B–$10.34B	-0.7%
Q2 FY2028 Period end 2027-08-01	$9.65B		$8.14B–$11.45B	-1.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Best Buy Co., Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Feb–Apr)	0.9991	-0.1%	In line with trend	13
FQ2 (May–Jul)	0.9823	-1.8%	In line with trend	12
FQ3 (Aug–Oct)	1.0	-0.0%	In line with trend	12
FQ4 (Nov–Jan)	1.0086	+0.9%	In line with trend	12

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 54 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.9501x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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