Doordash, Inc. DASH

Revenue Intelligence Report • 26 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Doordash, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $4.5B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $20.2B across the next four quarters (+27.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 3.9%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$20.2B
+27.1% YoY
R&D Elasticity
0.50x
SG&A Elasticity
0.80x
Training Fit
1.1% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $4.28B vs the actual $4.45B — an error of 3.9%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

DASH Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $4.28B $4.45B $4.16B–$4.40B +30.4% ✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $4.54B $4.37B–$4.73B +31.9%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $4.95B $4.72B–$5.20B +25.2%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $5.20B $4.91B–$5.50B +28.8%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $5.50B $5.17B–$5.86B +23.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Doordash, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.0029 +0.3% In line with trend 6
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0081 +0.8% In line with trend 5
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9979 -0.2% In line with trend 5
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9928 -0.7% In line with trend 5

Spending and Revenue

DASH Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 26 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.0821x • R&D elasticity: -0.0173x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 26 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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