Amazon Com Inc AMZN

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Amazon Com Inc's latest quarterly revenue is $201B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $806B across the next four quarters (+3.9% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 1.1%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$806.1B
+3.9% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.67x
Training Fit
4.6% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $198.30B vs the actual $200.61B — an error of 1.1%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Amazon Com Inc does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

AMZN Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $198.30B $200.61B $175.52B–$224.03B +18.2% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $205.89B $173.26B–$244.67B +14.3%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $233.07B $188.67B–$287.92B +9.2%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $173.68B $136.07B–$221.68B -4.3%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $193.48B $147.28B–$254.17B -3.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Amazon Com Inc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.0014 +0.1% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9874 -1.3% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9916 -0.8% In line with trend 17
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9931 -0.7% In line with trend 17

Spending and Revenue

AMZN Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.3938x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 73 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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