Walt Disney Co DIS

Revenue Intelligence Report • 34 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-27

Walt Disney Co's latest quarterly revenue is $25.2B for the period ending 2026-06-27. The model projects $93.4B across the next four quarters (-5.5% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 5.0%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-27. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$93.4B
-5.5% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$6.63 per $1
Training Fit
5.5% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q3 FY2026): The model predicted $23.99B vs the actual $25.25B — an error of 5.0%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Walt Disney Co does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

DIS Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-27		 $23.99B $25.25B $19.70B–$29.22B +1.4% ✓ In range
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-27		 $22.98B $18.18B–$29.04B +2.3%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2026-12-27		 $23.80B $18.66B–$30.35B -8.4%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-27		 $23.85B $18.20B–$31.23B -5.3%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-27		 $22.82B $16.84B–$30.92B -9.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Walt Disney Co's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Nov–Jan) 1.0557 +5.6% +5.6% above trend 8
FQ2 (Feb–Apr) 0.9901 -1.0% In line with trend 9
FQ3 (May–Jul) 1.0149 +1.5% In line with trend 8
FQ4 (Aug–Oct) 0.9427 -5.7% -5.7% below trend 8

Spending and Revenue

DIS Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 34 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.4746x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -5.0%.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 34 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

More in Consumer Cyclical

DASH BBY ROST RCL LOW BKNG TSCO CVNA