What is TJX's forecasted revenue?

The Tjx Companies, Inc. is forecasted to generate $65.3B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +4.7% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the TJX revenue forecast model?

The model has 3.6% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $15B versus the actual $15B.

The Tjx Companies, Inc. TJX

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-08-01

The Tjx Companies, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $15.2B for the period ending 2026-08-01. The model projects $65.3B across the next four quarters (+4.7% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 0.8%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-08-01. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$65.3B

+4.7% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$4.68 per $1

Training Fit

3.6% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2027): The model predicted $15.31B vs the actual $15.18B — an error of 0.8%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The Tjx Companies, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2026-08-01	$15.31B	$15.18B	$14.35B–$16.26B	+6.3%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2027 Period end 2026-11-01	$16.95B		$15.60B–$18.30B	+12.1%
Q4 FY2027 Period end 2027-02-01	$17.46B		$15.80B–$19.11B	-1.6%
Q1 FY2028 Period end 2027-05-01	$14.86B		$12.95B–$16.77B	+3.7%
Q2 FY2028 Period end 2027-08-01	$16.02B		$13.88B–$18.16B	+5.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture The Tjx Companies, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Mar–May)	0.9899	-1.0%	In line with trend	17
FQ2 (Jun–Aug)	1.0059	+0.6%	In line with trend	17
FQ3 (Sep–Nov)	1.0015	+0.1%	In line with trend	17
FQ4 (Dec–Feb)	1.018	+1.8%	In line with trend	17

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.6884x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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