Tesla, Inc. TSLA

Revenue Intelligence Report • 65 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Tesla, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $28.2B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $141B across the next four quarters (+35.9% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 15.4%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$140.8B
+35.9% YoY
R&D Elasticity
0.18x
SG&A Elasticity
1.37x
Training Fit
18.3% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $23.89B vs the actual $28.24B — an error of 15.4%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($28B) came in 15% above the spending-based forecast ($24B). This suggests that Tesla, Inc.'s recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

TSLA Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $23.89B $28.24B $14.67B–$38.91B +6.2% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $27.13B $13.61B–$54.07B -3.4%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $33.45B $14.37B–$77.85B +34.3%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $39.23B $14.79B–$104.06B +75.2%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $41.01B $13.78B–$122.05B +45.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Tesla, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.8547 -14.5% -14.5% below trend 16
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0784 +7.8% +7.8% above trend 15
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0109 +1.1% In line with trend 15
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0448 +4.5% +4.5% above trend 15

Spending and Revenue

TSLA Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 65 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.5111x • R&D elasticity: 0.3885x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 65 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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