Tko Group Holdings, Inc.: Bayesian forecast status
Latest verified revenue: $1.547B for the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Reported source.
Forecasts are conditional on the listed data cutoff. Sources were refreshed for this model run on 2026-11-04; the cutoff above identifies the latest verified revenue observation used for this model review. Some forecast quarters may already have ended by the computation date. Read each target date before treating an estimate as a future-quarter outlook.
No Bayesian interval or simulated path is presented for this vintage. The earlier report below remains available for context; its ranges are not Bayesian prediction intervals.
Management guidance versus reported revenue
Latest SEC earnings candidate sources were archived where available, but an exact numerical quarterly consolidated-revenue range and target were not fully verified. This is not evidence that the company never guides.
No verified numerical quarterly consolidated-revenue guidance is plotted for this research sample. This does not establish that the company never provides guidance; annual, segment-only and qualitative outlooks are separate.
Preserved Bayesian forecast vintage
Computed 2026-11-04 using revenue through 2026-06-30. These original numbers are retained unchanged to allow subsequent scoring; they were not refitted with the new results. Forecasts computed after a target quarter ended are retrospective estimates, not pre-release predictions.
The prior Bayesian forecast was withheld: Only 16 consecutive positive revenue quarters are available; this rollout requires at least 20.
The report below retains its original forecasts, validation and company-specific discussion. Those revenue estimates use a different model or information cutoff; they are separate from the Bayesian outlook above. Any EPS model below has not been recalculated using the new Bayesian revenue paths.
Tko Group Holdings, Inc. TKO
Revenue Intelligence Report • 16 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30
Earlier summary (2026-10-14): Tko Group Holdings, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $1.5B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $5.2B across the next four quarters (-2.3% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 42.7%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.
Investment Thesis
The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30 |
$886.3M | $1.55B | $743.9M–$1.06B | -32.3% | ✗ Outside range |
| Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30 |
$1.49B | $1.16B–$1.91B | +32.9% | ||
| Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31 |
$1.19B | $875.8M–$1.61B | +14.3% | ||
| Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31 |
$1.19B | $838.1M–$1.69B | -25.5% | ||
| Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30 |
$1.31B | $888.1M–$1.94B | -15.1% |
Seasonal Factors
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Jan–Mar) | 1.0064 | +0.6% | In line with trend | 3 |
| FQ2 (Apr–Jun) | 1.0265 | +2.7% | In line with trend | 3 |
| FQ3 (Jul–Sep) | 0.9826 | -1.7% | In line with trend | 3 |
| FQ4 (Oct–Dec) | 0.8889 | -11.1% | -11.1% below trend | 3 |
Spending and Revenue
Time-Varying Spending Associations
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.1968x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Want this analysis for your portfolio?
I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.
Get in Touch