Tractor Supply Co /De/ TSCO

Revenue Intelligence Report • 34 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-27

Tractor Supply Co /De/'s latest quarterly revenue is $4.5B for the period ending 2026-06-27. The model projects $17.4B across the next four quarters (+10.8% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 4.6%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-27. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$17.4B
+10.8% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.98x
Training Fit
9.5% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $4.33B vs the actual $4.54B — an error of 4.6%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Tractor Supply Co /De/ does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

TSCO Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-27		 $4.33B $4.54B $3.38B–$5.55B -2.5% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-27		 $4.00B $2.82B–$5.68B +7.6%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-27		 $4.95B $3.22B–$7.60B +26.9%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-27		 $3.92B $2.39B–$6.44B +9.3%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-27		 $4.57B $2.63B–$7.96B +0.7%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Tractor Supply Co /De/'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9541 -4.6% -4.6% below trend 8
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0086 +0.9% In line with trend 7
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.007 +0.7% In line with trend 7
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9472 -5.3% -5.3% below trend 7

Spending and Revenue

TSCO Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 34 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.5201x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 34 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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