Gilead Sciences, Inc. GILD

Revenue Intelligence Report • 33 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-06

Gilead Sciences, Inc. demonstrates a nuanced relationship between its spending and revenue generation, with a 1% increase in R&D leading to a -0.23% decrease in revenue, while a 1% increase in SG&A results in a 0.12% revenue increase. Despite a recent holdout test predicting revenue at $5882M, actual quarterly revenue fell short at $5548M, reflecting a 6.0% error. The company is forecasting a 2.4% year-over-year revenue growth, projecting $23 billion for the fiscal year, indicating a cautious but positive outlook for future performance. Investors should consider the implications of spending efficiency and revenue elasticity as key factors in evaluating Gilead's financial trajectory.

Next FY Revenue

$23.26B

+2.4% YoY

R&D Elasticity

-0.23x

SG&A Elasticity

0.12x

Model Accuracy

7.8% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $6B vs the actual $6B — an error of 6.0%.

⚠ Model limitation: This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q1 2020	$6B	$6B	$5B – $7B	+11.4%	✓ In range
Q3 2020	$6B		$4B – $8B	+3.2%
Q3 2020	$6B		$4B – $9B	+4.2%
Q4 2020	$6B		$4B – $9B	-1.3%
Q2 2021	$6B		$4B – $9B	+3.6%

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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