Gilead Sciences, Inc. GILD

Revenue Intelligence Report • 33 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Gilead Sciences, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $23B, a +2.4% year-over-year change, based on 33 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 0.09x). The ARDL model has 7.8% MAPE.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (7.8% MAPE), suggesting Gilead Sciences, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. R&D spending currently shows a negative elasticity (-0.18x), which can indicate heavy investment in long-cycle initiatives not yet reflected in revenue. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.09x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue
$23.3B
+2.4% YoY
R&D Elasticity
-0.18x
SG&A Elasticity
0.09x
Model Accuracy
7.8% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $5.9B vs the actual $5.5B — an error of 6.0%.
⚠ Model limitation: This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.

Revenue Forecast

GILD Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q1 2020 $5.9B $5.5B $4.7B – $7.3B +11.4% ✓ In range
Q3 2020 $5.9B $4.3B – $8.0B +3.2%
Q3 2020 $5.8B $4.0B – $8.5B +4.2%
Q4 2020 $5.8B $3.8B – $9.0B -1.3%
Q2 2021 $5.7B $3.5B – $9.4B +3.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Gilead Sciences, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 0.9661 -3.4% -3.4% below trend 8
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 1.0208 +2.1% In line with trend 8
FQ3 (Mar–May) 0.9237 -7.6% -7.6% below trend 8
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 1.075 +7.5% +7.5% above trend 8

How Spending Drives Revenue

GILD Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. Model: ARDL (log-log) with 33 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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