W.w. Grainger, Inc. GWW

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

W.w. Grainger, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $5.0B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $18.5B across the next four quarters (-1.8% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 5.5%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$18.5B
-1.8% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-3.04x
Training Fit
2.3% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $4.75B vs the actual $5.02B — an error of 5.5%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.
Note: W.w. Grainger, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

GWW Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $4.75B $5.02B $4.49B–$5.02B +4.2% ✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $4.64B $4.29B–$5.01B -0.4%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $4.56B $4.14B–$5.02B +3.0%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $4.67B $4.18B–$5.21B -1.6%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $4.64B $4.10B–$5.26B -7.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture W.w. Grainger, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.0088 +0.9% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0185 +1.9% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0051 +0.5% In line with trend 17
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9751 -2.5% In line with trend 17

Spending and Revenue

GWW Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.1486x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 73 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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