Lennox International Inc. LII

Revenue Intelligence Report • 61 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-03-31

Lennox International Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $1.1B for the period ending 2026-03-31. The model projects $5.1B across the next four quarters (-3.0% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 5.2%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-03-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$5.10B
-3.0% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.86x
Training Fit
3.7% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2026): The model predicted $1.08B vs the actual $1.14B — an error of 5.2%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Lennox International Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

LII Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q1 FY2026
Period end 2026-03-31		 $1.08B $1.14B $979.4M–$1.18B +0.3% ✓ In range
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $1.45B $1.27B–$1.65B -3.7%
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $1.37B $1.17B–$1.62B -3.7%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $1.21B $1.00B–$1.46B +1.1%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $1.07B $868.9M–$1.32B -5.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Lennox International Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9797 -2.0% In line with trend 14
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0174 +1.7% In line with trend 14
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9943 -0.6% In line with trend 14
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9844 -1.6% In line with trend 14

Spending and Revenue

LII Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 61 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.9618x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 61 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

More in Industrials

FTV ALLE CAT OTIS TDY IEX URI ROP