Otis Worldwide Corporation OTIS

Revenue Intelligence Report • 30 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Otis Worldwide Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $3.9B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $16.3B across the next four quarters (+9.6% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 1.3%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$16.3B
+9.6% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$-149.25 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$7.13 per $1
Training Fit
1.4% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $3.81B vs the actual $3.86B — an error of 1.3%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

OTIS Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $3.81B $3.86B $3.68B–$3.94B +5.9% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $3.96B $3.77B–$4.15B +7.4%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $4.05B $3.82B–$4.29B +6.8%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $4.02B $3.76B–$4.29B +12.9%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $4.30B $4.00B–$4.60B +11.4%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Otis Worldwide Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9864 -1.4% In line with trend 7
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0041 +0.4% In line with trend 6
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0077 +0.8% In line with trend 6
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0005 +0.1% In line with trend 6

Spending and Revenue

OTIS Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 30 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.7904x • R&D elasticity: 0.1491x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 30 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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