Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. SWK

Revenue Intelligence Report • 69 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-07-04

Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $4.0B for the period ending 2026-07-04. The model projects $15.8B across the next four quarters (+3.4% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 0.0%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-07-04. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$15.8B
+3.4% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$4.77 per $1
Training Fit
5.0% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2027): The model predicted $3.96B vs the actual $3.96B — an error of 0.0%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

SWK Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-07-04		 $3.96B $3.96B $3.43B–$4.58B +0.4% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2026-10-04		 $3.91B $3.38B–$4.52B +4.0%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-01-04		 $3.92B $3.38B–$4.54B +6.4%
Q1 FY2028
Period end 2027-04-04		 $3.97B $3.42B–$4.60B +3.1%
Q2 FY2028
Period end 2027-07-04		 $3.97B $3.41B–$4.61B +0.1%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Feb–Apr) 0.968 -3.2% -3.2% below trend 17
FQ2 (May–Jul) 1.0427 +4.3% +4.3% above trend 17
FQ3 (Aug–Oct) 1.0242 +2.4% In line with trend 17
FQ4 (Nov–Jan) 0.9968 -0.3% In line with trend 17

Spending and Revenue

SWK Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 69 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.1548x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is 0.0%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 69 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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