Textron Inc. TXT

Revenue Intelligence Report • 66 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-07-04

Textron Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $3.8B for the period ending 2026-07-04. The model projects $15.4B across the next four quarters (+0.5% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 1.1%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-07-04. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$15.4B
+0.5% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$6.49 per $1
Training Fit
5.1% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2027): The model predicted $3.78B vs the actual $3.83B — an error of 1.1%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Textron Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

TXT Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-07-04		 $3.78B $3.83B $3.39B–$4.17B +1.8% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2026-10-04		 $3.56B $3.00B–$4.11B -1.3%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-01-04		 $4.16B $3.48B–$4.84B -0.4%
Q1 FY2028
Period end 2027-04-04		 $3.78B $2.99B–$4.56B +2.2%
Q2 FY2028
Period end 2027-07-04		 $3.88B $3.00B–$4.75B +1.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Textron Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Feb–Apr) 0.9705 -2.9% In line with trend 16
FQ2 (May–Jul) 1.0078 +0.8% In line with trend 15
FQ3 (Aug–Oct) 1.0226 +2.3% In line with trend 15
FQ4 (Nov–Jan) 1.0317 +3.2% +3.2% above trend 15

Spending and Revenue

TXT Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 66 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.4879x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 66 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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