Johnson Controls International Plc JCI

Revenue Intelligence Report • 40 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-03-31

Johnson Controls International Plc's latest quarterly revenue is $6.1B for the period ending 2026-03-31. The model projects $22.7B across the next four quarters (-7.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 5.2%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-03-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$22.7B
-7.1% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.82x
Training Fit
11.5% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $5.82B vs the actual $6.14B — an error of 5.2%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Johnson Controls International Plc does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

JCI Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-03-31		 $5.82B $6.14B $4.03B–$8.41B +2.6% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $5.80B $4.00B–$8.41B -4.2%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $6.32B $4.32B–$9.24B -1.9%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2026-12-31		 $4.87B $3.30B–$7.18B -16.0%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $5.72B $3.87B–$8.45B -6.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Johnson Controls International Plc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Oct–Dec) 0.9589 -4.1% -4.1% below trend 10
FQ2 (Jan–Mar) 0.9619 -3.8% -3.8% below trend 9
FQ3 (Apr–Jun) 1.0703 +7.0% +7.0% above trend 10
FQ4 (Jul–Sep) 1.0073 +0.7% In line with trend 10

Spending and Revenue

JCI Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 40 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.1322x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -5.2%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 40 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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