Howmet Aerospace Inc. HWM

Revenue Intelligence Report • 30 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Howmet Aerospace Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $2.5B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $10.9B across the next four quarters (+19.7% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 4.3%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$10.9B
+19.7% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$453.65 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$14.09 per $1
Training Fit
3.2% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $2.44B vs the actual $2.55B — an error of 4.3%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

HWM Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $2.44B $2.55B $2.07B–$2.87B +18.7% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $2.61B $2.16B–$3.15B +24.8%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $2.69B $2.15B–$3.37B +24.1%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $2.63B $2.08B–$3.34B +13.8%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $2.98B $2.22B–$4.01B +17.1%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Howmet Aerospace Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.0092 +0.9% In line with trend 8
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9947 -0.5% In line with trend 7
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9714 -2.9% In line with trend 7
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0159 +1.6% In line with trend 7

Spending and Revenue

HWM Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 30 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.0023x • R&D elasticity: 0.3522x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -4.3%.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 30 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

More in Industrials

SWK NDSN BLDR RTX TDG IEX FIX IR