Pentair Plc PNR

Revenue Intelligence Report • 37 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-03-31

Pentair Plc's latest quarterly revenue is $1.0B for the period ending 2026-03-31. The model projects $4.2B across the next four quarters (+0.4% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 6.2%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-03-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$4.22B
+0.4% YoY
R&D Elasticity
1.78x
SG&A Elasticity
1.01x
Training Fit
2.7% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2026): The model predicted $972.6M vs the actual $1.04B — an error of 6.2%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

PNR Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q1 FY2026
Period end 2026-03-31		 $972.6M $1.04B $905.1M–$1.05B -3.7% ✓ In range
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $1.14B $1.03B–$1.26B +1.5%
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $1.02B $903.5M–$1.16B +0.1%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $1.06B $921.1M–$1.23B +4.2%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $993.4M $845.9M–$1.17B -4.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Pentair Plc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9772 -2.3% In line with trend 8
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0186 +1.9% In line with trend 8
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.989 -1.1% In line with trend 8
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0005 +0.1% In line with trend 8

Spending and Revenue

PNR Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 37 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.1517x • R&D elasticity: 0.7758x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 37 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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