Carrier Global Corporation CARR

Revenue Intelligence Report • 29 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-03-31

Carrier Global Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $5.3B for the period ending 2026-03-31. The model projects $20.7B across the next four quarters (-5.3% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 2.8%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-03-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$20.7B
-5.3% YoY
R&D Elasticity
0.42x
SG&A Elasticity
0.82x
Training Fit
3.0% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2026): The model predicted $5.19B vs the actual $5.34B — an error of 2.8%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

CARR Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q1 FY2026
Period end 2026-03-31		 $5.19B $5.34B $4.80B–$5.62B -0.5% ✓ In range
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $6.00B $5.37B–$6.71B -1.8%
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $5.09B $4.45B–$5.83B -8.7%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $4.54B $3.88B–$5.32B -6.0%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $5.07B $4.26B–$6.05B -5.0%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Carrier Global Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.0085 +0.9% In line with trend 6
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0033 +0.3% In line with trend 6
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0082 +0.8% In line with trend 6
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9994 -0.1% In line with trend 6

Spending and Revenue

CARR Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 29 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.0532x • R&D elasticity: 0.0501x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 29 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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