Eaton Corporation Plc ETN

Revenue Intelligence Report • 58 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Eaton Corporation Plc's latest quarterly revenue is $8.5B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $30.4B across the next four quarters (+1.3% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 11.8%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$30.4B
+1.3% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$13.86 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$6.35 per $1
Training Fit
2.5% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $7.53B vs the actual $8.53B — an error of 11.8%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

ETN Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $7.53B $8.53B $7.19B–$7.86B +7.1% ✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $7.62B $7.14B–$8.09B +9.0%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $7.07B $6.48B–$7.65B +0.2%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $7.76B $7.09B–$8.43B +4.2%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $7.99B $7.24B–$8.74B -6.4%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Eaton Corporation Plc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.977 -2.3% In line with trend 14
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0153 +1.5% In line with trend 13
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.996 -0.4% In line with trend 13
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0006 +0.1% In line with trend 13

Spending and Revenue

ETN Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 58 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.6451x • R&D elasticity: 0.3312x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 58 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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