Emerson Electric Co. EMR

Revenue Intelligence Report • 19 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Emerson Electric Co.'s latest quarterly revenue is $4.9B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $18.2B across the next four quarters (-2.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 7.3%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$18.2B
-2.2% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$2.55 per $1
Training Fit
2.8% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q3 FY2026): The model predicted $4.52B vs the actual $4.87B — an error of 7.3%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Emerson Electric Co. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

EMR Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $4.52B $4.87B $4.02B–$5.08B -0.8% ✓ In range
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $4.67B $4.09B–$5.33B -3.8%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2026-12-31		 $4.42B $3.76B–$5.20B +1.8%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $4.62B $3.90B–$5.46B +1.2%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $4.52B $3.72B–$5.48B -7.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Emerson Electric Co.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Oct–Dec) 0.9648 -3.5% -3.5% below trend 5
FQ2 (Jan–Mar) 0.9912 -0.9% In line with trend 5
FQ3 (Apr–Jun) 1.0135 +1.4% In line with trend 4
FQ4 (Jul–Sep) 1.0369 +3.7% +3.7% above trend 4

Spending and Revenue

EMR Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 19 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.7096x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -7.3%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 19 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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