Dover Corporation DOV

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Dover Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $2.2B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $7.5B across the next four quarters (-11.0% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 12.6%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$7.50B
-11.0% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$6.35 per $1
Training Fit
6.4% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $1.91B vs the actual $2.19B — an error of 12.6%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Dover Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

DOV Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $1.91B $2.19B $1.56B–$2.34B -6.6% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $1.94B $1.59B–$2.38B -6.5%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $1.89B $1.53B–$2.33B -10.0%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $1.84B $1.48B–$2.29B -10.4%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $1.83B $1.46B–$2.28B -16.7%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Dover Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.961 -3.9% -3.9% below trend 18
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0174 +1.7% In line with trend 18
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0306 +3.1% +3.1% above trend 18
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9805 -1.9% In line with trend 18

Spending and Revenue

DOV Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.7025x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -12.6%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 73 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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