Allegion Plc ALLE

Revenue Intelligence Report • 54 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Allegion Plc's latest quarterly revenue is $1.2B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $4.8B across the next four quarters (+13.0% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 0.6%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$4.84B
+13.0% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$3.93 per $1
Training Fit
3.1% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $1.14B vs the actual $1.15B — an error of 0.6%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Allegion Plc does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

ALLE Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $1.14B $1.15B $1.09B–$1.20B +12.0% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $1.22B $1.15B–$1.30B +14.1%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $1.17B $1.08B–$1.26B +13.2%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $1.17B $1.06B–$1.27B +12.8%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $1.29B $1.17B–$1.41B +11.9%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Allegion Plc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.985 -1.5% In line with trend 13
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0318 +3.2% +3.2% above trend 12
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9926 -0.7% In line with trend 12
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9968 -0.3% In line with trend 12

Spending and Revenue

ALLE Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 54 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.7434x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 54 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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