Parker-Hannifin Corporation PH

Revenue Intelligence Report • 72 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Parker-Hannifin Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $5.8B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $21.5B across the next four quarters (-0.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 5.3%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$21.5B
-0.1% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.57x
Training Fit
3.1% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q4 FY2026): The model predicted $5.45B vs the actual $5.75B — an error of 5.3%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Parker-Hannifin Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

PH Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $5.45B $5.75B $5.03B–$5.90B +4.0% ✓ In range
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2026-09-30		 $5.28B $4.72B–$5.91B +3.8%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-12-31		 $5.32B $4.64B–$6.11B +2.9%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $5.46B $4.65B–$6.40B -0.5%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $5.42B $4.54B–$6.48B -5.7%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Parker-Hannifin Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jul–Sep) 0.9854 -1.5% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Oct–Dec) 0.9851 -1.5% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Jan–Mar) 1.0231 +2.3% In line with trend 17
FQ4 (Apr–Jun) 1.0028 +0.3% In line with trend 16

Spending and Revenue

PH Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 72 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.3645x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 72 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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