A. O. Smith Corporation AOS

Revenue Intelligence Report • 38 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

A. O. Smith Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $1.0B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $3.6B across the next four quarters (-4.3% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 7.8%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$3.64B
-4.3% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-0.80x
Training Fit
3.4% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $926.5M vs the actual $1.00B — an error of 7.8%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.
Note: A. O. Smith Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

AOS Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $926.5M $1.00B $815.8M–$1.05B -8.4% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $913.0M $792.2M–$1.05B -3.1%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $900.5M $766.4M–$1.06B -1.3%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $923.4M $768.0M–$1.11B -2.4%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $906.2M $743.4M–$1.10B -9.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture A. O. Smith Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9704 -3.0% In line with trend 10
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0174 +1.7% In line with trend 9
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0164 +1.6% In line with trend 9
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.006 +0.6% In line with trend 9

Spending and Revenue

AOS Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 38 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.4497x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -7.8%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 38 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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