United Rentals, Inc. URI

Revenue Intelligence Report • 64 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-03-31

United Rentals, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $929M for the period ending 2026-03-31. The model projects $11.0B across the next four quarters (+9.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 10.4%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-03-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$11.0B
+9.2% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.06x
Training Fit
16.3% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2026): The model predicted $832.2M vs the actual $929.0M — an error of 10.4%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: United Rentals, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

URI Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q1 FY2026
Period end 2026-03-31		 $832.2M $929.0M $515.4M–$1.34B -6.8% ✓ In range
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $3.60B $1.83B–$7.08B -8.8%
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $5.41B $2.36B–$12.41B +27.9%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $1.23B $473.3M–$3.22B +24.4%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $778.6M $266.7M–$2.27B -16.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture United Rentals, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.0027 +0.3% In line with trend 14
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0412 +4.1% +4.1% above trend 15
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.071 +7.1% +7.1% above trend 15
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9895 -1.1% In line with trend 15

Spending and Revenue

URI Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 64 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.2419x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 64 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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