What is POOL's forecasted revenue?

Pool Corporation is forecasted to generate $5.03B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing -6.1% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the POOL revenue forecast model?

The model has 3.7% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.1B versus the actual $1.1B.

Pool Corporation POOL

Revenue Intelligence Report • 68 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-03-31

Pool Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $1.1B for the period ending 2026-03-31. The model projects $5.0B across the next four quarters (-6.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 7.7%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-03-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$5.03B

-6.1% YoY

SG&A Elasticity

1.18x

Training Fit

3.7% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2026): The model predicted $1.05B vs the actual $1.14B — an error of 7.7%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: Pool Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q1 FY2026 Period end 2026-03-31	$1.05B	$1.14B	$948.2M–$1.16B	-2.0%	✓ In range
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$1.69B		$1.46B–$1.95B	-5.3%
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$1.38B		$1.15B–$1.64B	-5.2%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$947.4M		$772.0M–$1.16B	-3.5%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$1.02B		$807.5M–$1.28B	-10.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Pool Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.9911	-0.9%	In line with trend	15
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0106	+1.1%	In line with trend	16
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	0.9949	-0.5%	In line with trend	16
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.0036	+0.4%	In line with trend	16

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 68 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 2.7829x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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