Cummins Inc. CMI

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Cummins Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $9.5B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $31.8B across the next four quarters (-8.3% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 13.9%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$31.8B
-8.3% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$10.71 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$11.21 per $1
Training Fit
4.2% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $8.15B vs the actual $9.46B — an error of 13.9%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

CMI Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $8.15B $9.46B $7.65B–$8.65B -5.8% ✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $7.83B $7.13B–$8.54B -5.8%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $7.84B $6.97B–$8.71B -8.1%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $8.19B $7.19B–$9.19B -2.4%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $7.94B $6.83B–$9.06B -16.0%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Cummins Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.0051 +0.5% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0294 +2.9% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9827 -1.7% In line with trend 17
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9905 -1.0% In line with trend 17

Spending and Revenue

CMI Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.2627x • R&D elasticity: 0.7257x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 73 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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