Masco Corporation MAS

Revenue Intelligence Report • 72 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-03-31

Masco Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $1.9B for the period ending 2026-03-31. The model projects $7.2B across the next four quarters (-6.4% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 5.4%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-03-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$7.19B
-6.4% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$4.40 per $1
Training Fit
6.1% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2026): The model predicted $1.81B vs the actual $1.92B — an error of 5.4%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Masco Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

MAS Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q1 FY2026
Period end 2026-03-31		 $1.81B $1.92B $1.59B–$2.04B +0.7% ✓ In range
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $1.85B $1.54B–$2.17B -9.6%
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $1.79B $1.40B–$2.17B -6.7%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $1.78B $1.34B–$2.23B -0.5%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $1.76B $1.27B–$2.26B -8.1%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Masco Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9811 -1.9% In line with trend 16
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.023 +2.3% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0091 +0.9% In line with trend 17
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9713 -2.9% In line with trend 17

Spending and Revenue

MAS Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 72 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.9535x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 72 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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