Rtx Corporation RTX

Revenue Intelligence Report • 30 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Rtx Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $24.7B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $107B across the next four quarters (+14.8% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 0.1%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$107.4B
+14.8% YoY
R&D Elasticity
1.32x
SG&A Elasticity
1.15x
Training Fit
4.2% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $24.67B vs the actual $24.71B — an error of 0.1%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

RTX Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $24.67B $24.71B $19.83B–$30.71B +14.3% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $24.72B $19.78B–$30.90B +10.0%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $27.66B $21.15B–$36.18B +14.1%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $26.26B $19.69B–$35.01B +18.9%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $28.72B $20.62B–$40.00B +16.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Rtx Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9927 -0.7% In line with trend 8
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0001 +0.0% In line with trend 7
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0129 +1.3% In line with trend 7
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0141 +1.4% In line with trend 7

Spending and Revenue

RTX Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 30 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.3154x • R&D elasticity: 0.2388x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -0.1%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 30 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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