What is NDSN's forecasted revenue?

Nordson Corporation is forecasted to generate $2.94B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing -1.3% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the NDSN revenue forecast model?

The model has 4.8% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $0.8B versus the actual $0.8B.

Nordson Corporation NDSN

Revenue Intelligence Report • 69 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-07-31

Nordson Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $818M for the period ending 2026-07-31. The model projects $2.9B across the next four quarters (-1.3% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 8.2%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-07-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$2.94B

-1.3% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$2.62 per $1

Training Fit

4.8% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q3 FY2026): The model predicted $750.8M vs the actual $817.7M — an error of 8.2%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: Nordson Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-07-31	$750.8M	$817.7M	$695.8M–$805.9M	+1.3%	✗ Outside range
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-10-31	$747.4M		$669.5M–$825.2M	-0.6%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-01-31	$694.4M		$599.0M–$789.7M	+3.7%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-04-30	$743.2M		$633.1M–$853.3M	+0.3%
Q3 FY2027 Period end 2027-07-31	$756.6M		$633.6M–$879.7M	-7.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Nordson Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Nov–Jan)	0.966	-3.4%	-3.4% below trend	16
FQ2 (Feb–Apr)	1.0348	+3.5%	+3.5% above trend	16
FQ3 (May–Jul)	1.0003	+0.0%	In line with trend	16
FQ4 (Aug–Oct)	1.0133	+1.3%	In line with trend	16

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 69 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.5626x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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