Ametek, inc. AME

Revenue Intelligence Report • 18 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Ametek, inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $2.0B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $8.4B across the next four quarters (+7.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 6.4%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$8.43B
+7.2% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$11.87 per $1
Training Fit
0.9% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $1.91B vs the actual $2.04B — an error of 6.4%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Ametek, inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

AME Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $1.91B $2.04B $1.83B–$1.99B +7.6% ✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $2.06B $1.96B–$2.17B +9.0%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $2.17B $2.01B–$2.35B +8.8%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $2.10B $1.95B–$2.27B +9.2%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $2.09B $1.92B–$2.26B +2.0%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Ametek, inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9951 -0.5% In line with trend 5
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9955 -0.5% In line with trend 4
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9943 -0.6% In line with trend 4
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.015 +1.5% In line with trend 4

Spending and Revenue

AME Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 18 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.5765x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -6.4%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 18 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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