3m Company MMM

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

3m Company's latest quarterly revenue is $6.5B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $29.9B across the next four quarters (+18.7% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 100.2%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$29.9B
+18.7% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-2.35x
Training Fit
28.7% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $13.01B vs the actual $6.50B — an error of 100.2%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.
Note: 3m Company does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($6.5B) came in 100% below the spending-based forecast ($13B). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.

Revenue Forecast

MMM Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $13.01B $6.50B $6.07B–$27.90B +105.1% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $4.72B $1.60B–$13.89B -27.5%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $10.03B $2.68B–$37.63B +63.6%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $4.00B $870.2M–$18.41B -33.6%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $11.14B $2.02B–$61.34B +71.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture 3m Company's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9828 -1.7% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0719 +7.2% +7.2% above trend 17
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.1246 +12.5% +12.5% above trend 17
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9101 -9.0% -9.0% below trend 17

Spending and Revenue

MMM Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.205x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 73 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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