Te Connectivity Plc TEL

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-26

Te Connectivity Plc's latest quarterly revenue is $5.2B for the period ending 2026-06-26. The model projects $20.6B across the next four quarters (+6.7% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 4.2%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-26. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$20.6B
+6.7% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$3.26 per $1
Training Fit
3.9% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q3 FY2026): The model predicted $4.94B vs the actual $5.16B — an error of 4.2%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Te Connectivity Plc does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

TEL Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-26		 $4.94B $5.16B $4.62B–$5.27B +9.0% ✓ In range
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-26		 $4.94B $4.48B–$5.40B +4.1%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2026-12-26		 $5.17B $4.60B–$5.73B +10.7%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-26		 $5.16B $4.51B–$5.80B +8.7%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-26		 $5.35B $4.62B–$6.07B +3.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Te Connectivity Plc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Oct–Dec) 0.9713 -2.9% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Jan–Mar) 0.9928 -0.7% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Apr–Jun) 1.0197 +2.0% In line with trend 17
FQ4 (Jul–Sep) 1.0154 +1.5% In line with trend 17

Spending and Revenue

TEL Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.4432x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 73 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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