Generac Holdings Inc. GNRC

Revenue Intelligence Report • 54 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Generac Holdings Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $1.2B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $4.3B across the next four quarters (-4.0% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 9.8%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$4.26B
-4.0% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$-19.21 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$3.53 per $1
Training Fit
8.2% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $1.06B vs the actual $1.17B — an error of 9.8%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

GNRC Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $1.06B $1.17B $815.3M–$1.38B -0.2% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $1.07B $801.4M–$1.43B -4.1%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $1.14B $795.2M–$1.64B +4.8%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $998.4M $717.5M–$1.39B -5.8%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $1.05B $732.6M–$1.51B -10.4%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Generac Holdings Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.931 -6.9% -6.9% below trend 14
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9574 -4.3% -4.3% below trend 13
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0418 +4.2% +4.2% above trend 13
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0891 +8.9% +8.9% above trend 13

Spending and Revenue

GNRC Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 54 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.2958x • R&D elasticity: 0.2397x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -9.8%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 54 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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