Emcor Group, Inc. EME

Revenue Intelligence Report • 69 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Emcor Group, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $5.2B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $21.4B across the next four quarters (+14.9% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 5.9%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$21.4B
+14.9% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.95x
Training Fit
2.3% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $4.85B vs the actual $5.15B — an error of 5.9%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Emcor Group, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

EME Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $4.85B $5.15B $4.58B–$5.13B +12.6% ✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $5.03B $4.64B–$5.45B +16.9%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $5.29B $4.79B–$5.84B +17.3%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $5.38B $4.80B–$6.03B +16.3%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $5.67B $4.99B–$6.44B +9.9%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Emcor Group, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9861 -1.4% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0203 +2.0% In line with trend 16
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0021 +0.2% In line with trend 16
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.989 -1.1% In line with trend 16

Spending and Revenue

EME Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 69 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.3998x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 69 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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