What is BLDR's forecasted revenue?

Builders Firstsource, Inc. is forecasted to generate $15.1B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +4.7% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the BLDR revenue forecast model?

The model has 4.8% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $3.9B versus the actual $3.9B.

Builders Firstsource, Inc. BLDR

Revenue Intelligence Report • 65 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Builders Firstsource, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $3.9B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $15.1B across the next four quarters (+4.7% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 0.2%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$15.1B

+4.7% YoY

SG&A Elasticity

0.94x

Training Fit

4.8% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $3.87B vs the actual $3.86B — an error of 0.2%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: Builders Firstsource, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$3.87B	$3.86B	$3.43B–$4.37B	-8.6%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$3.87B		$3.26B–$4.60B	-1.7%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$3.60B		$2.92B–$4.45B	+7.3%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$3.59B		$2.81B–$4.58B	+9.3%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$4.07B		$3.09B–$5.34B	+5.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Builders Firstsource, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	1.003	+0.3%	In line with trend	15
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0362	+3.6%	+3.6% above trend	15
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	0.9871	-1.3%	In line with trend	15
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	0.9787	-2.1%	In line with trend	15

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 65 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.5231x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch

More in Industrials

LII J LDOS IR FTV AOS TDG EME